Possible Scenarios for the Role of Oil Revenues in Developing the Iraqi Economy for the Period (2026-2030)

Abstract

The research included a study and analysis of the role of oil revenues in developing the Iraqi economy by adopting three possible scenarios for the next five years for the period (2026-2030) due to the continuous exposure of oil prices to fluctuations or changes, whether rising or falling. The analysis was based on a comparison of five years extending from 2019 to 2023 to predict oil prices, public expenditures and public revenues in Iraq. The aim of this is to show the impact of these fluctuations on the level of activity of the Iraqi economy to take the necessary measures in the event of crises or financial problems that have major repercussions on the citizen's livelihood and the provision of the necessary level of services and other requirements. It was concluded through this that if prices rise above the expected price of $66 for the coming years, there will be a financial surplus that will be positively reflected in the development of the Iraqi economy by investing it in income-generating projects. However, if the opposite happens and prices fall below $66, there will be dire and serious consequences, the first of which is a deficit in the general budget of the Iraqi state and then a decrease in the allocations of public spending, especially investment spending, and thus the consequences will be unfavorable. Therefore, we need to put in place measures and take means that can limit the shocks and crises that may harm the Iraqi economy.